Google recently unveiled a new artificial intelligence model that can forecast weather conditions as early as fifteen days ahead. The model, christened GenCast, can offer better forecasts of both extreme weather events and day-to-day weather than currently available systems. This signifies an important advancement in weather prediction based on AI.
The model improves upon the firm’s previous weather model, which offered one estimate for future weather. In comparison, the new model consists of a collection of fifty or more forecasts, each standing for a potential weather trajectory.
The multinational tech company, which reported its findings in Nature, stated that their tool was a diffusion model. They explained that the model was adapted to the earth’s spherical geometry and learned to accurately produce probable future weather scenarios using the most recent state of the weather as its data.
To train the model, the tech company used 40 years’ worth of historical weather data from the ERA5 archive – European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF). This data included variables like wind speed, temperature and pressure at different altitudes. By processing this data, GenCast was able to understand international weather patterns.
On assessing the model’s performance, Google trained it on weather data till 2018 then tested it on data from the following year. Investigators found that the model demonstrated better prediction skills than the ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction System, which is currently used as the basis for many local and national decisions.
To confirm the tool’s performance, the investigators tested the two systems, examining predictions of different variables at varying lead times. They determined that their AI tool was more accurate than the Ensemble Prediction System on over 97% of those targets.
In their report, the investigators explained that better predictions of extreme weather like strong winds and heat waves allow for cost-effective and timely preventative actions. More accurate predictions of extreme weather risks also allow officials to protect more lives, and prevent further damage.
They noted that GenCast provided greater value than the Ensemble Prediction System when making decisions about how to prepare for extreme weather, across an extensive range of scenarios. The investigators also found that the tool’s ability to forecast extreme cold and heat as well as high wind speeds was significantly better than the Ensemble Prediction System.
GenCast is part of the tech company’s growing suite of next-generation weather models based on AI, which include its SEEDS, NeuralGCM, and DeepMind models.
Other tech companies like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) have also introduced a variety of AI-based services onto the market and are continuing to develop even more. The coming years are therefore likely to see AI making its presence felt in nearly every walk of life.
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