Could Reported Risk of AI Interference in Elections Be Exaggerated?

Artificial intelligence (AI)’s popularity seems to be growing globally, with consumers, critics and experts all holding different opinions on the increased use of this tech. With at least 64 countries expected to hold their elections this year, new concerns on the use of AI in influencing election outcomes have been raised.

While it is easy to believe all the negative stories about how artificial intelligence will influence and mislead voters, it is important to examine the evidence first.

Findings from the Alan Turing Institute show that since 2023, more than 100 national elections were held. Of this number, only 19 demonstrated interference by AI. Additionally, the evidence didn’t show any consequential changes in election results compared to expected performance based on data from polls.

From this, we can assume that any electoral interference by artificial intelligence would be highly unlikely.

This is made clearer when we consider the fact that mass persuasion is particularly hard. When individuals are presented with new information, many update their beliefs, but even then, this rarely translates into any change in behavior. Evidence has also shown that political persuasion has minimal effects on voters.

New research is also challenging the idea that microtargeting individuals using artificial intelligence to influence their voting behavior is as effective as many feared. Experts explain that voters actively dislike messages that are excessively tailored for them.

Some studies have also demonstrated that AI’s persuasive effects are greatly overstated.

Additionally, voting behavior is influenced by different factors, including an individual’s age, gender, values, class, socialization and identities. Information usually plays a minor role in this process, primarily because the acceptance and consumption of data is dependent on pre-existing factors.

This is not to mean though that concerns about democracy and artificial intelligence are unwarranted. The use of artificial intelligence can decrease the diversity of perspectives people can be exposed to while also amplifying social inequalities.

We have also seen the abuse and harassment of female politicians, all achieved through the use of artificial intelligence. This, combined with the perception fueled by media coverage, show that artificial intelligence could reduce trust in sources of reliable data as well as democratic processes.

Even with this in mind, however, there are larger threats to elections and democracy that have nothing to do with this tech. From politicians peddling falsehoods to the intimidation of voters, candidates and election officials, there are more pressing matters that need to be addressed. Leading AI companies such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) need to work with all stakeholders to develop guardrails that shield against the potential drawbacks of artificial intelligence while allowing the benefits to be tapped.

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